All Models Are Wrong, But Some Are Useful

Box (1976) - Science and Statistics | Wikipedia - All models are wrong

“All models are wrong, but some are useful.” - George E. P. Box

George E. P. Box (1919–2013), British statistician, first formulated this principle in his essay Science and Statistics (1976). The full passage: “Since all models are wrong the scientist cannot obtain a ‘correct’ one by excessive elaboration. On the contrary following William of Occam he should seek an economical description of natural phenomena.” Box repeated and extended the idea in 1987 in Empirical Model-Building and Response Surfaces. The quote became a guiding principle in science, statistics, and agile thinking: models are simplifications of reality, and their value lies not in correctness but in usefulness for decisions and understanding.