The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis
A speculative but well-argued scenario by Citrini Research and Alap Shah exploring how continued AI advancement could trigger an economy-wide crisis through labor displacement and financial instability. The authors argue that AI productivity gains create a destructive feedback loop: companies replace workers to protect margins, displaced workers spend less, consumer demand weakens, and the cycle accelerates. The scenario identifies three interconnected crises: agentic AI disrupting white-collar work, AI agents collapsing intermediary profit models, and income impairment destabilizing the mortgage market. By June 2028, the scenario projects double-digit unemployment, a 38% equity market decline, and rising mortgage delinquencies among prime borrowers.